Tim Fergestad Ph.D.

Writing

Essays

On investing, ownership, and how to decide well when the outcome is not knowable.

Every Investment Is a Hypothesis

Five questions I ask before I commit to anything, and the control experiment that took an exciting result away from me.

Essay

Why I Read the Return Last

A projected return is an output, not a fact. The order I evaluate a deal in, and the assumption doing the quiet work underneath the number.

Essay

Was It Skill, or Was It the Decade?

Reading a track record for skill instead of timing. Survivorship, cheap debt, and the one question that separates a process from a period.

Planned

Build the Control

What disconfirming evidence looks like inside a private investment, and how to write it down before you are emotionally committed.

Planned